Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 2.124123 2.237464 2.359229 2.500835 2.662408 2.842822 3.062186
2025-06-08 1.983076 2.125939 2.285756 2.480535 2.715600 2.996026 3.365973
2025-06-15 1.907612 2.072132 2.261952 2.502115 2.805929 3.190445 3.739421
2025-06-22 1.801267 1.971182 2.170720 2.428805 2.764828 3.206541 3.872235
2025-06-29 1.744595 1.923912 2.138428 2.422521 2.804368 3.328667 4.172652
2025-07-06 1.676894 1.858519 2.078448 2.374352 2.780849 3.356556 4.330363
2025-07-13 1.653159 1.845146 2.081663 2.407245 2.869252 3.555585 4.814840
2025-07-20 1.644242 1.849028 2.106049 2.468913 3.003253 3.843896 5.559967
2025-07-27 1.613070 1.822714 2.089012 2.471294 3.048571 3.994582 6.092993
2025-08-03 1.585231 1.799189 2.074006 2.474751 3.094746 4.153078 6.722119
2025-08-10 1.535919 1.745862 2.016556 2.413446 3.032751 4.105656 6.801956
2025-08-17 1.508567 1.720275 1.995475 2.403711 3.052654 4.214411 7.381167
2025-08-24 1.479364 1.692295 1.971315 2.390077 3.068433 4.325378 8.083951
2025-08-31 1.450906 1.664256 1.945779 2.372639 3.075832 4.420661 8.833661
2025-09-07 1.436855 1.654762 1.945283 2.392601 3.148728 4.669451 10.570226
2025-09-14 1.395855 1.607820 1.890544 2.326147 3.063302 4.549222 10.362447
2025-09-21 1.376333 1.589369 1.875398 2.320485 3.086595 4.685263 11.840904
2025-09-28 1.345885 1.555313 1.837020 2.276607 3.036926 4.639580 12.126749
2025-10-05 1.339714 1.554071 1.845274 2.306604 3.126007 4.954501 16.302346
2025-10-12 1.341410 1.563520 1.869077 2.362711 3.271056 5.468862 31.260877
2025-10-19 1.327548 1.550993 1.860295 2.364876 3.310299 5.700341 62.244391
2025-10-26 1.314616 1.539391 1.852420 2.368017 3.351748 5.955311 NaN
2025-11-02 1.286125 1.505438 1.810545 2.312259 3.266492 5.771582 NaN